Zimbabwe: Prospects for Zanu PF, MDC talks fade

The general feeling within ZANU PF, which has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from Britain in 1980, is that the two parties are currently at sea in terms of their ideologies, hence the talks, just as had happened in the past, are doomed to collapse even before they start.
Interest within ZANU PF has shifted to the succession debate which has already created division within the party. It is argued that it would be easier for whoever is handed the baton stick by President Robert Mugabe to win the hearts of the international community.
The international community, led by Britain, the United States of America and Australia, has been tightening the screws on the embattled 79-year-old guerrilla leader’s regime ever since it embarked on the controversial land reform.
Constitutional law expert and political analyst Lovemore Madhuku said it makes sense for ZANU PF to be clear on President Mugabe’s political future before the talks because any dialogue with the MDC would focus on the ruling party leader’s style of governance.
“Dialogue will definitely hinge on his (President Mugabe) retirement. The MDC must not be academic about the whole process. The reality on the ground is that a way has to be paved for his retirement before talking and ZANU PF wants to be clear about that,” said Madhuku.
“That’s politics. Any leader can leave politics with his ideas as long as he believes in them, but if the MDC wants to change President Mugabe, then they have got another thing coming because they will not be able to manage him.”
Failure to resuscitate dialogue between the MDC and ZANU PF could worsen the economic crisis that caused at least 250 company closures last year and scores of job losses. The resultant poverty is unlikely to improve ZANU PF’s acceptance in the urban areas, where the party has lost support.
In fact, ravaging poverty could make it difficult for ZANU PF to maintain the rural vote, which it has kept closely guarded by blocking the opposition from campaigning in outlying areas.
With prospects for the resumption of talks fading, analysts said the MDC, which is challenging President Mugabe’s disputed election in court, should not sit back but rather exploit emerging weaknesses within ZANU PF.
“ZANU PF has thrived on causing division within the opposition and it is sad that the MDC has not been as innovative,” said an observer.
Although the opposition’s use of mass stay-aways and successful lobbying for biting sanctions that have resulted in travel restrictions against ZANU PF’s top officials has worked, fresh strategies should complement them.
Jockeying for President Robert Mugabe’s post accelerated following the death three weeks ago of his confidante and ZANU PF chief strategist, vice President Simon Vengai Muzenda.
Potential candidates tipped for the top post include speaker of Parliament, Emmerson Mnangagwa, ZANU PF national chairman, John Nkomo, former Finance Minister Simba Makoni and Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi.
Heneri Dzinotyiwei, a political commentator, said both the MDC and ZANU PF were not serious about the talks. While agreeing that the death of Muzenda had put a damper on the resumption of talks, Dzinotyiwei said the lack of urgency within both parties was the biggest impediment.
“I don’t believe the debate on Mugabe’s succession is the main cause for stalling dialogue. It’s just that there is no clear sense of urgency on both parties,” he said.
At Muzenda’s burial at the national shrine, President Mugabe for the first time made conciliatory remarks to the MDC, which gave him a run for his money in last year’s hotly contested presidential election.
Critics said overtures by President Mugabe were nothing other than mere rhetoric.
Contrary to his usual vitriol against the opposition, President Mugabe, in an unusual about-turn, described the MDC leadership as “sons of the soil”.
MDC’s national spokesman Paul Themba Nyathi said despite several public statements by ZANU PF leaders on the likelihood of revamping political talks, nothing concrete was happening on the ground.
“Despite all these statements, there has been nothing tangible yet because as long as ZANU PF is pre-occupied with Mugabe’s succession, we will not get anywhere,” Nyathi said.
“We are exactly where we were three years ago. Nothing has changed. We have announced our negotiating team in readiness for the talks and what have they done? Nothing. We hope the church leaders at the forefront of trying to make ZANU PF see the urgency and need for talks will succeed, otherwise we will not move an inch in the right direction. For now there is nothing going on in that direction.”
Special Affairs Minister in the President’s Office John Nkomo is, however, on record saying talks were going on at various levels in political and social circles.
Nkomo said: “We are discussing with everybody at various levels including churches and other institutions. We have remained committed to the resumption of talks . . . ZANU PF is talking to other people either individually or in groups. I have no doubt in my mind that there will be a breakthrough soon. What may be left now is the pronouncement of the breakthrough.”