The Zimbabwe dollar, which had for the past three months found a home on the 1 300 to a US unit level on the parallel market, weakened further into negative territory during the week to hit its lowest level ever at 2 000 to the greenback.
"There’s not going to be any reprieve to the Zimbabwe dollar," warned John Robertson, an independent economic consultant. "It could hit 3 000 within the next few months."
NOCZIM has instructed its bankers to secure US dollars from the parallel market "at any price" as it battles to clear arrears with its international suppliers and also raise enough money for its oil procurement obligation.
Dealers and analysts said the situation had become desperate for foreign currency hunters as the once-thriving parallel market, which had been offering lucrative rates to exporters compared to the official market, was now starved since a government decision forcing exporters to surrender all receipts to the central bank.
The decision had been made at the same time the government announced a devaluation of the Zimbabwe dollar from 55 to 824 to the US unit at the end of February in a move that was designed to encourage receipts in the ailing interbank market.
But dealers said this week that export receipts had dwindled to historic lows and pressure was now expected to pile up on the government to allow a further devaluation of the local currency on the official market at a review meeting with stakeholders this month.
"There is virtually nothing in the interbank market and dealers are busy scouting for foreign currency on the parallel market for NOCZIM," a commercial bank foreign currency dealer said. "It’s a desperate situation in the market and one that gives an indication of doom."
Robertson added: "Exporters are waiting for a devaluation and they are now holding on to their export consignments. The parallel market used to be fed by exporters with excess receipts but that changed when the Reserve Bank started capturing all the forex from exporters."
The government early this year announced that all export receipts would be held by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), which would compulsorily take 50 percent for disbursement to NOCZIM and the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) for oil and electricity imports, respectively. The other 50 percent would be made available to exporters on application for approved import requirements or be remitted to the RBZ at a rate of 824 local units to the greenback.
This move meant that exporters who used to divert their excess receipts to the parallel market at better rates were unable to do so.
Market watchers said the parallel foreign currency market was no longer the hive of activity that it used to be, but still played a crucial role in determining the direction of the Zimbabwe dollar in a highly inflationary environment beset by critical foreign currency shortages.
They said the main drive behind the parallel market was now the cross-border traders, smugglers and Zimbabweans working abroad.
ZESA this week won a key concession with the RBZ allowing it to charge its corporate export customers in US dollars in a bid to beef up its foreign currency account for payment of electricity imports, but there was still mounting pressure which could force the utility to resort to the parallel market.
Publicly, the government has condemned the parallel market, which forced it to unceremoniously ban all bureaux de change operations in the country.
But privately, sources said, it was still an active accomplice to the unofficial market, with all its major parastatals – Air Zimbabwe, NOCZIM and ZESA, among others – buying heavily from it.
"The dollar will continue to sufferbecause there is an absence of confidence in the country," said Lovemore Kadenge, president of the Zimbabwe Economics Society.