South Africa: Zuma not yet out in the cold

Johannesburg (South Africa) — Discontent with President Jacob Zuma 's leadership within the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the African National Congress (ANC) Youth League does not mean they will not support his re-election in 2012, analysts say.

Cosatu launched a scathing attack against Mr Zuma last week, saying SA under his presidency is rapidly becoming a "predatory state", a country where the f irst family feeds first, followed by other well-connected elites. This was in reference to the controversial Arcelor-Mittal SA deal, which benefited Mr Zuma's son, Duduzane, and his close ally, Sandile Zungu.

ANC Youth League president Julius Malema expressed anger with the deal last week. Speaking at its national general council on Friday, Mr Malema said the league will not allow SA to become a typical African state where a president's family is the wealthiest, while citizens live in poverty.

Speculation is rife that the league wants to remove Mr Zuma in 2012 and replace him with his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe .

It is calling for "new blood" to be elected at the ANC national conference . It also wants its former president, Deputy Police Minister Fikile Mbalula, to replace secretary-general Gwede Mantashe.

Political analyst Steven Friedman says both Cosatu and the ANC Youth League might not end up campaigning against Mr Zuma.

Prof Friedman says Cosatu supported Mr Zuma at the last ANC conference in Polokwane hoping he would be more friendly to the labour movement. "They have learnt there is not much difference between the Thabo Mbeki and the Jacob Zuma government."

Mcebisi Ndletyana, senior research specialist with the Human Science Research Council, says Cosatu had misunderstood the kind of president Mr Zuma would be.

"To have expected that Mr Zuma would lead a worker-friendly government was a false expectation," Mr Ndletyana says.

Prof Friedman says the attitude of Mr Zuma's government towards labour will make Cosatu less interested in who becomes the next president. "It would be wrong for Cosatu to back someone else ... this does not mean they will necessarily back another candidate."

Mr Ndletyana says whether or not Cosatu will support Mr Zuma will be determined by the list of potential candidates made available. "They may still think he is the best of the lot," he says.

On the youth league, Prof Friedman says it is "not really" a decision maker. However, he says it is important for any leader to have the league behind his or her candidacy. "The youth league has for a while been trying to present itself as a kingmaker," he says.

"They may be trying to maximise their influence but whatever they say can't be guaranteed. They might not end up campaigning against him (Mr Zuma)."

Mr Ndletyana says the league was not impressed with the disciplinary action against Mr Malema and expected Mr Zuma to come to his defence. Mr Malema was found guilty and fined after he compared Mr Zuma to Mr Mbeki.

"When Mr Zuma did not offer that support, Mr Malema thought (the league) can't rely on him," Mr Ndletyana says.

Prof Friedman says it might now be easier for Mr Zuma to exit if he sees the odds are against him.

Upon his election, Mr Zuma publicly stated that he was not interested in a second term. "This could make it easier for him to say I don't want a second term."

Both Mr Ndletyana and Prof Friedman say it will be very difficult for Mr Zuma to please both Cosatu and the youth league as he will risk alienating the other.

"I don't think he is going to do that," Prof Friedman says.

For Zuma to please Cosatu, he would have to intervene in the public service strike by improving the wage offer.

"But that would alienate his minister of public service and administration ( Richard Baloyi ) and other ministers ... it will be very unwise," Prof Friedman says.

To please the league Mr Zuma would have to condemn the disciplinary action against Mr Malema and align himself with nationalist projects. "That would alienate the left . He does not want to do that," Mr Ndletyana says.

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Source: Business Day

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