The usually unflappable Zuma looked rattled as he arrived at Parliament in Cape Town to give the State of the Nation address on 11 February. His speech was a damp squib – too plodding to fire up his political base and too short on specifics to impress the markets.
Just days before, Zuma had been pushed into making a public apology over revelations that he had fathered another child out of wedlock, this time with the daughter of football mogul and owner of the Kaiser Chiefs club Irvin Khoza. For once, the commentariat's talk of 'floodgates opening' and 'circling hyenas' did not seem overblown as African National Congress insiders briefed journalists that Zuma's promiscuity was a liability to the ANC.
It was Zuma's third public apology – the first two were about having unprotected sex with another friend's daughter and making belligerent remarks about gay people – which raises doubts about his sincerity and his own standing. More so because, we hear, the pressure on him to apologise came from some of his most senior allies, such as KwaZulu-Natal Premier Zweli Mkhize, leader of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) Zwelinzima Vavi, and South African Communist Party (SACP) Secretary General Blade Nzimande.
Despite the efforts of Zuma's spin doctors to downplay the political importance of the affair, it was clear that many ANC supporters – and not just the middle class ones – were deeply critical of his behaviour. Many senior ANC people see that voters link Zuma's lifestyle and tough economic conditions in the townships.
Some poorer ANC supporters complained that Zuma's wives, concubines and extended family get state subsidies while others must wait for government services, jobs and houses (AC Vol 51 No 1 & AC Vol 51 No 3).
Zuma's aides initially argued that the affairs of the openly polygamous President were a private matter, but gender activists and health workers threatened protests over his 'appalling' example to a nation battling an HIV/AIDS pandemic. Moreover, Zuma undermined the ANC's 'one partner' campaign to reduce the spread of the virus.
Zuma's lacklustre address to Parliament was broadcast across the country, following a re-enactment of Mandela's release from Victor Verster (now Drakenstein) prison outside Cape Town and an elaborate celebration in Parliament in Mandela's presence.
On 10 February, Zuma's security detail arrested ANC member Chumani Maxwele for making an offensive sign at Zuma as his convoy swept past. Zuma failed to turn up at the 20th anniversary rally near Paarl and his aides cancelled visits to the Cape townships of Bakweni and Guguletu, perhaps fearing more anger over his latest indiscretion.
However, jobs and services will be the keys to the ANC's performance in next year's local government elections. As in many countries, voters like to use local polls to show disaffection with the governing party. Much will depend on the scale of that disaffection.
Some senior ANC figures say Zuma is on probation, arguing that the ousting of President Thabo Mbeki in September 2008 set a precedent for the ANC National Executive to discipline the party leader. Many now say Zuma will be (as he once promised) a one-term President.
Activists are positioning for the 2012 ANC conference, to be held in Mangaung. The primary target is the secretary general's post: ANC Youth League (ANCYL) leader Julius Malema wants to replace incumbent Gwede Mantashe with his friend, Deputy Police Commissioner Fikile Mbalula. Many agree that Mantashe's other job as SACP Chairman implies a conflict of interest but would be equally unhappy about Mbalula. Other contenders include the SACP's Nzimande – now Higher Education Minister – and Cosatu's powerful Vavi, who has been calling loudly for lifestyle audits of 'fat cat' politicians and government officials.
The SACP and Cosatu were unenthusiastic about Zuma's address, in which he claimed the government had created nearly half a million jobs last year through the extended works programme. SACP Spokesman Malesela Maleka welcomed his commitment to expanding the infrastructure programme to 846 billion rand (US$111.7 bn.) from R787 bn., but Cosatu National Spokesman Patrick Craven said Zuma had glossed over the employment crisis.
Officials say ministers will elaborate details of job-creation initiatives during the parliamentary season, with Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies explaining the new Industrial Policy Action Plan. Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan's inaugural budget speech on 17 February reassured markets that South Africa was not abandoning inflation targeting and that its deficit was heading downwards.
The ministers said the plan would provide a greater focus on intervention to alter the structure of the economy and support the creation of 'decent work', continuing well after the construction-sector boost provided by the World Cup. Economic advisor to the Presidency Alan Hirsch told Africa Confidential that Zuma's announcement of a R1 bn. fund to guarantee loans to 'gap market' housing applicants could provide continuity of employment for those engaged in World Cup road-building and building projects.
Zuma also announced plans for a new independent energy agency, rapid intervention in 'failing' schools and detailed 'delivery agreements' to be signed by each cabinet minister, committing them to specific targets and deadlines. It was unclear how these were to be enforced. Collins Chabane, the Minister of Policy Monitoring and Evaluation, said it was unlikely that punitive measures would be taken against underperforming ministers.
His department is standing in for Trevor Manuel's National Planning Commission, which is still to announce key staff. Since Manuel's departure from the Treasury, analysts have looked for signs that the centre of gravity is shifting from Gordhan's Finance Ministry to Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel.
Confusion over roles has led to uncertainty about which department is ultimately responsible for macroeconomic policy, with insiders saying it is likely to be Economic Development. Democratic Alliance parliamentary leader Athol Trollip said Zuma's speech was 'marked by a very particular and distinct ideological shift towards a socialist agenda.'
If macroeconomic policy devolves to Patel, a former unionist, Cosatu's demands to re-examine South African Reserve Bank policies such as inflation targeting may well be on the agenda. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry said business was being affected by the lack of clarity about such issues, with the business confidence index down from 83.5 in December to 81.2 in January.
Despite murmurs of disapproval from the public and within the ANC, Zuma's approval ratings appear not to have dipped much since polls late last year. A TNS survey conducted in the week of his parliamentary address showed that his popularity hinged on service delivery rather than his sex life. The survey, conducted among a sample of 2,000 adults in seven cities, showed Zuma's approval level rose from 40% at the beginning of 2009 to 58% last November.
Protests about services have flared in several municipalities during Zuma's reign, particularly in Mpumalanga Province, where youths in Siyathemba township went on the rampage two days before his speech, looting shops and setting fire to the library. Grievances include dissatisfaction with local councillors and labour recruitment but ANCYL leaders have hinted that opposing ANC factions may be behind the violence.
Protests may well continue as slow government programmes fail to dent living conditions or offer opportunities to young people – 75% of the unemployed. The ability of the government to change those realities will determine Zuma's political future.