When nominations ended yesterday, Zuma had won in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, Northern Cape, Gauteng and Free State. His arch rival and boss in the ANC, President Thabo Mbeki, garnered four provinces — Eastern Cape, North West, Western Cape and Limpopo. Other hopefuls, Tokyo Sexwale, Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, fell by the wayside, failing to get any provincial nominations. Their only hope is to be nominated from the floor at the conference — or as a compromise.
Though the provincial general council meetings held around the country at the weekend resulted in a close call of five presidential nominations for Zuma and four for Mbeki, a closer look of the votes painted a different picture. The numbers showed that more than 2200 of the 3600 votes cast in the provincial general council meetings were in favour of Zuma, and about 1300 wanted Mbeki to be re-elected. At the time of going to press a small number of votes in North West, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape were still being contested by both sides.
Though this is the strongest indication yet of Zuma’s support base, insiders warn that “intense lobbying” of voting delegates in the build-up to the ANC national conference could “sway” the vote. Though he won the presidential nomination from Eastern Cape and Limpopo — two of the ANC’s top three strongest provinces in terms of voting delegates going to conference — the election was a close contest and in the end Zuma lost by a small margin in provinces previously considered as Mbeki strongholds.
In contrast, talk of Mbeki gaining ground in Zuma’s key constituencies proved baseless. Of the ANC’s top six strongest provinces, Zuma secured the overwhelming majority . Mbeki also had a strong showing in North West and Western Cape, getting nominations there. Steven Friedman, senior research associate at policy think-tank Idasa, said yesterday that the provincial general council results would force Mbeki to “pause for thought” on whether or not he was eligible for candidacy.
“Zuma is ahead. It is very significant that the secret ballot in the provincial general councils favoured Zuma because it will force Mbeki to ponder his candidacy or pre-empt a negotiated settlement. With the possibility of a corruption case hanging over Zuma’s head and Mbeki moving from a weak position, both sides have bargaining power,” Friedman said. The analysts point to Mbeki’s failure to secure a victory in Eastern Cape as the major weakness in his re-election campaign.
Though Mbeki won the support of Eastern Cape, Zuma garnered 40% of the support in the province previously believed to be Mbeki’s key constituency. Zuma, meanwhile, secured 580 in comparison to Mbeki’s nine votes in KwaZulu-Natal, 287 to Mbeki’s 76 in Free State, 266 votes to Mbeki’s 37 in Mpumalanga and 254 votes to Mbeki’s 94 in Gauteng. Notably Limpopo — where Mbeki won by 224 votes to Zuma’s 210 — along with the majority of other provinces came out in favour of the Zuma camp’s list of preferred candidates for the ANC’s top brass.
The ANC Youth League, a well-known Zuma power base, is yet to make its pronouncement official. Nor has the ANC Women’s League (ANCWL) gone public. Sources in the party say the women’s league is likely to support Mbeki. Both leagues are regarded as provinces at the congress. The ANCWL’s national executive committee will meet today to make its nominations for the ANC top brass. Friedman also noted that Zuma’s unexpectedly strong showing in Eastern Cape highlighted that ANC members where not voting only along ethnic lines. Zuma is Zulu and from KwaZulu-Natal. The largely Xhosa Eastern Cape was expected to back Mbeki, who is Xhosa.
“Ethnic groups clearly don’t matter as much as they have mattered previously in the ANC, or as much as we thought they mattered in the ANC,” Friedman said. Sources close to the Mbeki and Zuma camps said yesterday that though the results were telling, the race had not yet been won or lost. They said now that Zuma and Mbeki’s support bases were in the public domain, “intense lobbying” of the ANC’s 4075 voting delegates could begin. Lobbyists have told Business Day that the gloves would be off in the build-up to the ANC’s conference. Mbeki is quoted in weekend newspapers as “urging ANC MPs not to vote for criminals and rapists” — an apparent swipe at Zuma, who faced a failed rape trial last year.